Monthly Archives: December 2011

Will Banks Rise in 2012? History Strongly Suggests Yes

2011 was a year the U.S. banks would like to forget. Stocks declined 24.6%, underperforming the S&P 500 by the same amount (SPX ended the year unchanged). This was the fifth worst result since 1937 (i.e., the first year of available return data). It also marked the 7th year out of the last 8 in which the banks underperformed (and it would have been 8 of 8, except the banks rose over 15% in December 2010). This is highly noteworthy since the banks have outperformed almost exactly half the time in the last 74 years. And 2011 was the worst result for bank stocks in a year in which credit losses declined. (Sources: Barclays, FDIC, HCP.) Read More»

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